The fate of millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey hangs in the balance amid fears that they may become pawns in the country’s changing politics. Syrian refugees have become central in the
CNN
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Ferrari’s miserable season has gone from bad to worse as the Italian manufacturer failed to get either car into the top 10 at its home grand prix for the first time since 1984.
Sebastian Vettel didn’t make it out of the first qualifying round and could only muster a lowly 17th place, while teammate Charles Leclerc made it into the second qualifying round but could only claim 13th on the grid ahead of Sunday’s race.
Ferrari knew it would struggle for speed coming into this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix, but even they couldn’t have predicted things would be this bad.
Leclerc sits in fifth place in the drivers’ championship with 45 points, already 112 points behind runaway leader Lewis Hamilton. Things are even worse for four-time world champion Vettel, who only has 16 points and sits in 13th place.
In the constructors’ standings, Ferrari is in 5th place and a whopping 203 points behind leader Mercedes.
One miniscule silver lining for Ferrari is that its fervent supporters – known as the ‘tifosi’ – were not present to witness the disastrous performance, with races still being driven behind closed doors.
READ: Lewis Hamilton pays tribute to Chadwick Boseman after Belgian GP victory
“At the end, we expected it a little bit coming into the weekend,” a visibly frustrated Leclerc told Sky Sports. “We knew Spa [last weekend] and here were the two worst tracks for us. It’s like this … it’s tough.
“For now, it’s like this and I need to extract the maximum out of the car. It hurts even more that it’s at home. This is the reality for us at the moment. We need to work,” Leclerc said.
At the top of the leaderboard, Mercedes recorded yet another 1-2 as Lewis Hamilton secured his 8th pole at the Italian Grand Prix, with teammate Valtteri Bottas narrowly losing out by one tenth of a second to start second on the grid.
“It was a fantastic performance from the team,” Hamilton told Sky Sports. “It wasn’t the easiest, you’ve seen how close it was between us. It needed a clean lap and I got both.
“Valtteri was strong and kept pushing, I was a bit nervous going through the final sector. In the years I’ve been here, I’ve had times when we had less downforce and grip, [but] the speed through the Lesmos [corner] was awesome. It’s trying to finds the right balance which is not so easy,” Hamilton said.
McLaren’s Carlos Sainz put in arguably the performance of the day to secure 3rd for his best ever grid spot, while Racing Point driver Sergio Perez’s 4th place equaled his best ever qualifying position.
Top 10
- 1. Hamilton
- 2. Bottas
- 3. Sainz
- 4. Perez
- 5. Verstappen
- 6. Norris
- 7. Ricciardo
- 8. Stroll
- 9. Albon
- 10. Gasly
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The fate of millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey hangs in the balance amid fears that they may become pawns in the country’s changing politics.
Syrian refugees have become central in the political debate in Turkey ahead of elections next year. Calls to repatriate them to war-torn Syria used to be the cause of fringe, right-wing parties, but now they’ve become mainstream as the country reels from an economic crisis.
Turkey, once a sworn enemy of Syria’s regime, has lately been sending signals that it’s ready to start talking to it. That has shocked many Syrian refugees in Turkey, most of whom fled the violence there and fear for their lives if they return home.
“There isn’t a precondition for dialogue [with Syria],” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview last week. “What matters more is the aim and target of that dialogue,” he told Turkish broadcaster Haber Global.
His comments marked a dramatic shift from Ankara’s position over the past decade. Turkey has been one of the main backers of the Syrian opposition and armed factions that have fought to topple the Assad regime there, and it has intervened in the conflict militarily. The Turkish military maintains a presence across its border with Syria and in areas inside Syria it controls along with Syrian opposition forces.
Cavusoglu made his comments just days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that “diplomacy can never be cut off” with Damascus, and that Ankara needs to “secure further steps with Syria.” Ankara’s goal, he added, was not to defeat Syrian President Bashar Al Assad.
Just a decade ago, Erdogan described Assad’s regime as a “terrorist” one that would “pay the price” for the Syrian lives lost in the war. He also vowed to pray in Damascus’ famed Umayyad Mosque, suggesting that the regime would be toppled.
Turkey has recalibrated its foreign policy over the past year to mend ties and reconcile with neighbors, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Turkish officials also appear to be working towards restoring ties with Egypt, whose ruling regime overthrew a democratically elected Islamist government that was backed by Turkey.
This softening of Ankara’s position also comes as several Arab states turn the page on Syria’s war and welcome Assad back into the regional fold.
Conciliatory statements by Turkish officials are however a calculated move directed at the domestic audience ahead of elections next year, Asli Aydintasbas, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.
“We are heading into elections, [Erdogan’s] numbers are looking very uncertain and the refugee issue seems to be one of the top concerns for Turkish voters across the political spectrum, including his own base,” she said.
Anti-refugee sentiment has been on the rise in Turkey in recent months. The country hosts the world’s biggest population of refugees, and it is facing a deepening economic crisis with inflation near 80% – the highest in almost three decades. According to the United Nations, the nation of 86 million hosts around 4 million registered refugees, the vast majority of whom are Syrian.
“Refugees are the scapegoat,” Aydintasbas said. “There’s no economic or even real reason for this, but people, when [they’re] unemployed, when [they see] their purchasing power decline, find refugees as a convenient scapegoat.”
Observers and rights groups say Turkey is unlikely to send Syrians back to their country if it’s unsafe for them, due to international treaties protecting the rights of refugees. But they expect this will continue to be used as a tool to rally support by all parties ahead of next year’s vote.
“This whole notion of starting a political dialogue is intended to reassure voters that the government is doing something, [and] has plans for the repatriation of Syrians, even though this is unlikely to happen,” Aydintasbas said.
Despite reassurances from the Turkish government that there will be no forced returns, many Syrians in Turkey fear they will be made to go back. Those in opposition-controlled regions of Syria fear their areas will be handed back to Syrian government forces.
“We will be executed one by one without any hesitation because we started this revolution,” Ammar Abu Hamzeh, a 38-year-old father of four in the northern Syrian city of Al-Bab. “ If the regime comes to the liberated areas, we will either die or we will have to flee with our families to Europe through Turkey.”
Both the ruling party and the opposition in Ankara have suggested that normalization with the Assad regime is necessary to deal with Turkey’s refugee issue.
When the Turkish foreign minister first hinted at reconciliation earlier this month and revealed he had a brief encounter with his Syrian counterpart on the sidelines of a conference last year, it sparked outrage in the last remaining part of rebel-held Syria.
A Syrian in Istanbul described the fear in his community amid the uncertainty. He spoke to us on the condition of anonymity because of his own precarious status in both countries.
“[Erdogan] wants to win the election and we will pay the price,” he said. “If Erdogan wins, they probably would not send us back without guarantees, but if the opposition wins they will probably open the gates and send us all back. We will need to look at going to other countries.”
Gestures toward the Syrian regime would likely be part of Erdogan’s election pledge, said Aydintasbas. “It’s highly unlikely for this to move forward, other than pleasantries between Turkey and Damascus.”
Iraq’s powerful cleric Sadr says he is quitting politics
Iraq’s powerful Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said on Monday that he was quitting politics and closing his institutions in response to a political deadlock. “I hereby announce my final withdrawal,” he tweeted. Hundreds of protesters inside Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone attempted to storm the Republican Palace, security officials told us on Monday.
- Background: Considered the kingmaker of Iraqi politics, Sadr withdrew his lawmakers from parliament in June after he failed to form a government of his choosing. A political impasse between him and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has given Iraq its longest run without a government.
- Why it matters: Sadr’s supporters have since the end of July occupied parliament and protested near government buildings, halting the process to choose a new president and prime minister. The announcement raised fears that they may escalate their protests, fueling a new phase of instability.
Iran reiterates closure of UN probe as demand to revive nuclear deal
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that “there is no point in a nuclear agreement” if an International Atomic Energy Agency investigation into unexplained uranium traces at Iranian sites is not settled.
- Background: Iran has demanded the closure of a probe by the UN’s nuclear watchdog into uranium traces found at undeclared research sites before it agrees to fully implement a proposal to revive the 2015 nuclear pact that was abandoned by the Trump administration.
- Why it matters: The probe is the only major sticking point in the talks and risks prolonging an already protracted effort to come to an agreement. Iran has dropped some demands, including the de-listing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, a senior US official told CNN earlier this month.
Turkish pop star to be moved to house arrest after detention sparked outrage
A Turkish court ruled that pop star Gulsen should now be placed under house arrest, state-run news agency Anadolu reported on Monday, after the singer’s formal arrest four days ago over a joke about religious schools sparked outrage.
- Background: Gulsen was jailed pending trial on Thursday on a charge of incitement to hatred, after a video of her comments from four months ago surfaced on a website of a pro-government newspaper, Sabah, a day earlier. Several ministers condemned her comments on Twitter. She denied the charge, and apologized to those offended by her remarks.
- Why it matters: Thousands took to social media in support of Gulsen, saying she was targeted for her support for LGBT+ rights and liberal views that go against those held by Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party.
A video showing a Turkish sports commentator getting slapped by a cat on live TV has gone viral in the country.
Huseyin Ozkok was discussing football live on the A Spor channel on Saturday when a cat appeared behind him and slapped him on the face.
“You have a little guest it seems? Did you bring your cat?” the anchor laughed.
Ozkok replied that he was a guest at the cat’s house.
He later shared a picture of the cat. “Here’s Oli, our little hot-headed friend who hit me with a right-hook on air,” he tweeted. “When he was tiny and about to die, he was found in a dumpster and brought back to life. Let’s take care of the animals. Let’s not call bad people animals.”
By Isil Sariyuce
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The olive trees at the Green Gold Olive Oil Company’s Finca Fuensantilla in Beas del Segura, Spain, have suffered record temperatures and a lack of rainfall this year. (Alfredo Cáliz/Panos/Redux for CNN)
Manuel Heredia Halcón’s grandparents planted the olive trees in his 1,200-acre grove in Andalusia, Spain, almost a century ago.
The trees are renowned for their ability to grow in even the driest of soils, but this year, scorching temperatures and a severe lack of rainfall have taken a toll.
“We are very concerned,” Halcón told CNN Business. “You cannot replace the olive tree with any other tree or product,” he added.
Like many of Europe’s farmers, Halcón has battled extreme drought this summer — he estimates that the olive oil harvest from his farm, Cortijo de Suerte Alta, will fall by about 40% this year because of the extraordinary weather conditions.
In July, temperatures broke records to top 40 degrees Celsius (104.5 degrees Fahrenheit) across parts of France, Spain, Italy and Portugal. By early August, sweltering heat and a lack of rainfall had pushed almost two-thirds of land in the European Union into drought conditions, according to the European Drought Observatory.
Olive oil producers have been hit hard. Kyle Holland, a pricing analyst for oilseeds and grains at Mintec, a commodities data company, expects a “dramatic reduction” of between 33% and 38% in Spain’s olive oil harvest that begins in October.
Spain is the world’s biggest producer of olive oil, accounting for more than two-fifths of global supply last year, according to the International Olive Council. Greece, Italy and Portugal are also major producers.
Consumers are already paying more for olive oil. Retail prices across the European Union shot up 14% in the year to July. But prices are set to rise further in the coming months, producers and buyers told CNN Business.
“The drought is too significant. It’s simply too dry. Some trees are producing very little fruit, some trees are producing no fruit at all. This only happens when soil moisture levels are critically low,” Holland told CNN Business.
It is a warning shot for an industry reliant on a predictable life cycle for olive trees. Growers are accustomed to large swings in the harvest over a 24-month period, but climate change is already disrupting that centuries-old rhythm.
Fallen olives are seen in dry soil during the drought at Villa Filippo Berio in Vecchiano, Italy. (Noemi Cassanelli/CNN)
Paco Bujalance, Cortijo de Suerte Alta’s mill master, shows olives at the company’s grove in Albendín, Spain. (Alfredo Cáliz/Panos/Redux for CNN)
‘Impossible to have fruit’
Producing olive oil is all about timing. The trees begin to bud in March before the flowers open in May. The olives grow over the summer months before harvest in the fall.
Andalusia, Spain’s southern-most region, supplies about one third of the world’s olive oil. It is used to temperatures regularly hitting 40 degrees Celsius, but not in May, when the flowers start to bloom.
“In that moment maybe we lost 15% to 20% of the harvest,” he said.
Halcón expects to sell this year’s oil at €4 ($3.97) per kilo to his buyers, including importers in Asia and America. That’s an increase of 30% over the last year.
The heatwave coincided with a third consecutive year of little rainfall. Water levels in the Guadalquivir river, which helps irrigate the surrounding olive groves, are critically low. Halcón said he could only give his trees about half of the usual amount of water this growing season.
“Next year will be even worse because dams will be completely empty,” he said.
Juan Jímenez, CEO of the Green Gold Olive Oil Company, a family business located about 160 kilometers (100 miles) to the northeast faces similar problems.
“[The issue] is not only about how hot it was, but when it was hot,” he told CNN Business.
“In the moment when the flower of the olive comes to life, and [if it is] hot, the flower itself, it burns, so it’s impossible to have a fruit,” he added.
Jímenez’s olive trees cover 740 acres of mountainous and flat terrain. May’s soaring temperatures will likely reduce his crop by between 35% and 60% of a normal year’s harvest if rain doesn’t fall within the next few weeks.
If so, that would be the “worst harvest in the last 10 years,” Jímenez said.
Elsewhere in southern Europe, drought conditions have also caused huge headaches. Filippo Berio sells oil in 72 countries, and sources most of it from suppliers in Italy, Spain and Greece.
It also produces its own oil from 25,000 trees in Italy. Walter Zanre, managing director of Filippo Berio’s UK division, described the Tuscan grove as “tinder-dry” this summer. In late July, a wildfire broke out very close to the company’s only factory — where all of its oils are blended, refined and bottled — engulfing it in smoke and ash.
“We’ve lived through drought situations, but I think in living memory this is the worst that anyone’s ever seen,” Zanre told CNN Business.
Price shock
Just how bad the 2022 harvest will be remains to be seen. The United States Department of Agriculture last month forecast a drop of 14% in global production, while Mintec expects it could be similar to the 30%-plus loss projected for Spain.
Benchmark producer prices for Spanish extra virgin olive oil from Andalusia hit their highest level in over five years at the end of August. And, in the past two years, they have soared by almost 80% — from €2.19 ($2.18) per kilogram in August 2020 to €3.93 ($3.90) this month.
Prices spiked in early 2021 as buyers worried poor weather would crimp supply, Mintec data shows. They shot up again in late February after Russia invaded Ukraine, when a feared drop in sunflower oil exports from the region led buyers to stock up on olive oil as a substitute.
Since June, signs that the next harvest will be poor have boosted prices again.
So far, lengthy contracts between suppliers and retailers have shielded consumers from some of the worst price increases. But shoppers can expect a significant hike in the next four months, when retailers renew their supply agreements, Holland said.
“Retailers will try not to pass on as much of these costs as they can,” he said, adding that producer prices could increase by as much as 15% above August’s already inflated levels. Even a 10% rise would put producer prices at their highest ever level, according to Mintec data.
Yacine Amor, director at the Artisan Olive Oil Company, a UK wholesaler, told CNN Business that he expects the shelf price for a half-liter bottle (18 fluid ounces) of his olive oil to rise by as much as 20% over the next few months. Amor’s customers are mostly supermarkets, delis and restaurants.
A tractor drives through an olive grove at Villa Filippo Berio in Italy. (Noemi Cassanelli/CNN)
Inside the olive oil mill room at Villa Filippo Berio. (Noemi Cassanelli/CNN)
The price of a bottle has already shot up in some major markets. In Europe, the world’s biggest consumer of olive oil, the biggest rises were recorded in the Netherlands and Greece, where retail prices jumped by more than a quarter in July compared to the same time the year before.
The same sized bottle of Filippo Berio extra virgin olive oil in the United Kingdom — the brand’s biggest market outside of the United States — now costs a record £5 ($5.76) in some stores, up from £3.75 ($4.32) at the start of the year. That’s a third more expensive.
Zanre’s biggest concern is how shoppers’ behavior may change as prices inevitably rise.
“Without question we are facing one of the most difficult periods ever experienced in the olive oil industry,” he said.
Cost are rising everywhere
Olive oil producers have weathered plenty of storms in the past, but this year, a combination of extreme weather, supply chain bottlenecks and soaring energy costs — stoked by the war in Ukraine — have caused an unprecedented squeeze.
Halcón said the cost of electricity needed to pump water to his trees has doubled, while his glass bottles are 40% more expensive.
For Zanre, too, “anything you touch in [the] supply chain” has increased in price. He believes that some costs, such as shipping fees, are unlikely to ever come down.
“The pallet the goods move on have gone up, the bottles have gone up, the labels have gone up, the caps have gone up, the energy to run the factory has gone up. Everything. And then, on top of that, we have the price of [the] oil going up,” he said.
But crisis breeds opportunity, Halcón said. Rising prices for seed oils, including sunflower oil, has made olive oil more competitive.
“If one year ago, olive oil was double [the] price, or even three times more expensive than some [alternatives], today we are maybe only 20%, 30% more expensive than seed oils,” he said.
Jímenez is also optimistic. Olive oil is still only a tiny fraction of the global edible oils market, he said, a share he’s convinced can only grow.
“But we need to be prepared to understand that maybe this [drought] is going to happen, not once in 20 years, but one in ten, or one in five, or one in four. And we need to be prepared to do that if we want to survive in a competitive market,” he said.
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